After declining owing to the Covid-19 epidemic, biofuel demand rebounded to levels close to 2019 in 2021, reaching 4 EJ (159 200 million liters). Biofuels are especially important for decarbonizing transportation because they provide a low-carbon option for current technologies such as light-duty automobiles in the short term and heavy-duty trucks, ships, and airplanes with limited alternatives in the long run.
However, a significant increase in biofuel production is required to achieve Net Zero Emissions by the 2050 Scenario and achieve the corresponding emission reductions.
According to the Net Zero Scenario, biofuel output reaches 15 EJ by 2030, which calls for an average increase of about 16% annually. Expanding the use of advanced feedstock is also necessary; by 2030, biofuels made from waste and residual resources will account for 45% of all biofuel demand, up from around 8% in 2021. 3.6% of the world’s transportation energy needs in 2021, primarily for road transport, came from biofuels.
According to the Net Zero Scenario, by 2030, biofuels will have contributed 15% of the transportation sector’s fuel needs or about one-fifth of it. Even though the pandemic caused a fall in global demand for biofuels, it has now rebounded to 2019 levels, and the recovery has been unequal for different biofuels.
Demand for ethanol increased by 6% between 2020 and 2021 but remained 7% lower than in 2019. FAME (biodiesel) surpassed 2020 demand by 0.3% to achieve 1.4 EJ. However, renewable diesel (referring to HVO) consumption increased exponentially to over 0.3 EJ in 2021, which is 65% more than in 2019. The competition between the proportional growth rates of the two biofuels between biodiesel and renewable diesel for the same feedstock is further complicated.
According to the Net Zero Scenario, around 50% of the biofuels used in 2030—up from a projected 8% in 2021—are derived from wastes, leftovers, and special crops that don’t compete with food crops (for example, crops planted on marginal land).
There is still a need for innovation in the conversion of grassy and woody biomass to liquid biofuels, for instance by thermochemical processes like rapid pyrolysis with upgrading, hydrothermal liquefaction, and biomass gasification followed by bio-FT synthesis.
Source: IEA